IN THIS ISSUE

Roofing  ·  Restoration  ·  Garage Door  ·  Exteriors  ·  General Contracting  ·  Home Building  ·  Background signal

What to do about it: Re-forecast the fourth quarter off July, not June — starts, sales and completions all moved the same direction at once, which is more than noise. If you build or supply spec homes, weigh standing inventory against 9.6 months of supply before you commit to another slab. Call your three largest customers this week and ask what they have under contract for October through December, in units rather than in optimism. Reprice every open bid older than 60 days against the July input numbers, and put a materials-escalation clause and a 15-to-30-day quote expiry on anything carrying metal, asphalt or fuel exposure. If your crews are sized for spring volume, decide now whether to carry them through winter or shed hours; the expensive version of that decision is the one made in November.

Energy and metals carried the increase; wood and plastics did not. An aluminum-framed window, a steel stud wall or an asphalt roof absorbed four to six times the 7.1 percent average. Vinyl siding, housewrap and dimensional lumber are the comparatively cheap scopes this fall. Construction wages rose 5.2 percent over the same twelve months, against 3.2 percent private-sector. Source: Construction Input Costs Climb 7.1 Percent Between July 2025 and July 2026 — AGC of America, August 17, 2026

Why it matters: NOAA's August 6, 2026 mid-season update held the outlook at 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes, with a 75 percent chance of a below-normal season, 20 percent near-normal and 5 percent above, on a strengthening El Nino. Two named storms had formed and no hurricane; that was still true on August 19, and 7 of 10 Atlantic seasons record their first hurricane before that date. September is still the peak month, but a restorer who budgeted 2026 on catastrophe response has lost most of the upside. Shift marketing spend and crew capacity to non-catastrophe work — supply-line and appliance failures, sewage, fire, mold — and reset the fourth-quarter revenue plan this week, not in October.

Why it matters: A Restoration & Remediation analysis (August 27, 2026) puts restoration firms reporting labor shortages at roughly 42 percent on the lower estimate and as high as 62 percent, with employee turnover near 28 percent, against 36 percent of small business owners generally reporting openings they cannot fill. Turnover at that rate is a cost line, not a hiring problem: every replacement carries recruiting, IICRC training and the productivity gap of a new technician. It compounds in a light storm year, when a bench you cannot bill meets thinner catastrophe revenue. Price your next ten jobs off your actual loaded labor rate, not last year's, and put a number on what one lost technician costs in recruiting, training and lost hours.

Why it matters: Nucor raised its consumer spot price for hot-rolled coil to $1,160 a short ton on August 10, 2026, one of a run; Steel Market Update's August 4 assessment averaged HRC at $1,180. Industry estimates put steel and aluminum at 40 to 60 percent of a garage door's manufacturing cost, with roughly 225 pounds of steel in a typical 16-by-8 residential door, so coil moves do not stay absorbed. Price letters follow coil by about a quarter, so this year's announced increases reflect spring coil, not August coil. Shorten quote validity on door-only jobs to 30 days, ask each manufacturer rep in writing when the next price letter lands and its effective date, and stop honoring last quarter's proposals.

Why it matters: The Census Bureau put July housing completions at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,212,000 on August 18, 2026, down 9.1 percent from June's 1,333,000 and 16.8 percent below July 2025's 1,456,000. Single-family completions were 878,000. A garage door goes on at completion, not at groundbreaking, so completions set a dealer's builder volume, and they fell further year over year than starts, down 13.5 percent. Permits rose 5.0 percent to 1,443,000, so the pipeline is not empty; the near-term install calendar is. Dealers leaning on two or three production builders carry the exposure; replacement and service work is the offset. Call each builder account this week for its October-to-December completion schedule in units.

The same mid-range house costs roughly twice as much per square foot in California as in Mississippi, and the band inside a single state is still $100 to $160 wide. A national cost-per-foot number is close to useless in a bid conversation. The band that matters is your state's, and where in it your finish level sits — quote from your own last five closed jobs. Source: Home Building Cost Per Square Foot by State (2026 Data)

Why it matters: Qualified Remodeler's Top 500 replacement analysis (August 13, 2026): 252 firms, $16.26 billion in 2025 revenue. Job count fell 16.9 percent, 1.77 million projects to 1.47 million, while average project value rose 6.0 percent to $16,374: fewer, bigger jobs. Windows fell from 29.0 to 27.2 percent of the mix, roofing rose from 12.1 to 17.9, baths entered the top three, siding fell out. Median cost per issued lead was $396, 39 percent of firms over $500, 18 percent over $1,000; marketing 12.1 percent of remodeling revenue. They cut their 2026 growth projection from 9 to 4 percent between the first and second quarters. Measure your cost per lead and close rate this month: at $396 a lead, a two-point close-rate slip is the margin.

Why it matters: AGC's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics producer prices (August 17, 2026) puts twelve-month increases through July at 40.5 percent for aluminum mill shapes, 22.5 percent for steel mill products and 18.4 for copper and brass mill shapes, against 9.9 percent for lumber and plywood and 5.0 for construction plastics. Overall input costs rose 7.1 percent. That is a materials-selection fact: aluminum-frame windows, gutter coil, metal roofing, soffit, fascia and trim sit on the 40 percent line, vinyl frames, siding and housewrap near the 5 percent line. Quote vinyl and aluminum side by side on every replacement bid this fall and show the customer the difference, and re-price any aluminum-heavy scope you bid before June.

Sales climbed to a 678,000 annual pace in June, the best month of 2026, then dropped to 607,000 in July — below where the series sat in February. Unsold inventory rose to 9.6 months of supply from 8.5, and the median new-home price fell to $393,800. Builders are discounting into a market that is not absorbing the houses already standing. Source: Monthly New Residential Sales, July 2026 — U.S. Census Bureau, released August 25, 2026

Why it matters: The Bureau of Industry and Security proposed 14 additions to the Section 232 steel, aluminum and copper derivative lists (Federal Register, August 6, 2026); comments closed August 27. They include trailers and semi-trailers, tanker and agricultural trailers, self-propelled cranes and lifting frames, welding machine parts, electric conductor cable, fire extinguishers, floor safes, heat exchanger and hydraulic engine and motor parts. Most would carry 25 percent, agricultural equipment 15 percent, filled steel containers 50 percent. No effective date is published, and none will exist until an inclusion notice issues. If a trailer or lift purchase is planned for the fourth quarter, ask the dealer now whether the unit is imported.

Why it matters: Home Depot reported on August 18, 2026 second-quarter sales of $47.9 billion, up 5.7 percent, with comparable sales up 1.7 percent, U.S. comps up 1.3 percent, average ticket up 2.8 percent to $92.50 and transactions down 0.8 percent to 443.2 million; its CFO cited broad-based demand and smaller projects. Lowe's reported on August 19 sales of $26.0 billion and comps up 0.2 percent, with growth in Pro, online and home services offset by pressure in discretionary DIY. Both held full-year comp guidance at roughly flat. The signal is mix, not volume: money is moving into smaller, more necessary work and through the Pro channel. Build and staff a repair or small-project offer you can sell at $3,000 to $10,000.

Why it matters: The 2027 International Energy Conservation Code is locked: trade reporting on August 25 and 27, 2026 confirms no appeals against the residential or commercial provisions, publication anticipated December 1, 2026. On the residential side the envelope backstop tightened across every compliance path, homes with basements or conditioned crawlspaces must keep ductwork in conditioned space, and Energy Rating Index thresholds dropped a point in every climate zone. Both sets should meet or exceed 2024 efficiency levels, though the gains are small. Nothing changes locally until your state or county adopts it, typically one to several years later. The duct rule changes plans, not just specs — put it in front of your designer now.

Why it matters: Marino\WARE announced on July 28, 2026 a minimum 10 percent increase on all steel products delivered on or after September 1, citing mill increases, tariffs, freight and demand. ABC Supply Interiors' log shows the rest in the same window: ClarkDietrich, AMICO and Telling Industries effective September 1, CEMCO August 31, Knauf insulation September 1. The whole cold-formed shelf moves at once, so switching suppliers will not dodge it. Delivery date is the trigger, not order date, so will-call material into September can reprice. Pull every job with steel stud, track or joist scope after Labor Day, confirm in writing which price applies to material already ordered, and take delivery before August 31 where you can stage it.

What to do about it: You don't need a security program. You need multi-factor authentication on email and your accounting login, and one rule everybody follows: nobody changes bank details on the strength of an email or a call — you ring the number you already had on file and confirm. That covers most of it, and costs nothing. The part it doesn't — how the systems are set up — is the day job of our parent company, CyberSainya.

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